Archbishop Speaks To Nation

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, was interviewed on the BBC Breakfast show on Wednesday 27^th, and was asked about hope.  The UK had just passed the 100,000 deaths mark, and being World Holocaust Day added a deeper hue of grey in the background.  It was commented that people look for hope in vaccines, and in falling infection rates to avoid death or sickness.  His take was different.  Hope was to come from two sources.  From courage for the here and now.  And for the build back in the nation afterwards.

Long Jab wait? Try waiting here…

A friend called and said he was hoping for The Big Wedding to take place in July, “Bill, you follow these things, what are the chances of it happening OK in July?”  I replied “maybe OK.  But it will be safer to have The Reception and speeches in 2022.”  Many of us are trying to calculate when we will get “done” in time for the Mediterranean summer holiday?  However, for many of the poorer countries, the wait could be long long long.  If ever.

Last week there was a four day conference on vaccination issues in Haiti, which our hospital was represented.  But no news of vaccines.  In Uganda where our local teams are helping refugees – no news of vaccines.  Just news of an additional rations cut (though Chinese contractors in Uganda are getting the Chinese vaccine).  There is a moral storm brewing.

“Moral failure”

Hunting The Jab

Lot of chatter about The Jab: Jane’s had both but Saul a mile away has had none, did you know that Downton General Hospital are offering it to anyone over 70 who turns up; Liz & Phil are over 90 and have only just had the first dose (that Windsor GP must be asleep); no! keep awake!, my friend called me in the evening for a quickie[i]. And all such conversations are greeted with astonishment.

Announcements in the Autumn talked of doses at 1 million a week with a view to vaccinating all over 65 by Easter.  This would have meant 13.5 million people getting two jabs over 15 weeks, assuming the process started before Christmas.  Approximately 1.8 million jabs a week

Darkest Before Dawn

Darkest before dawn – sums it up for Covid, especially for us in UK.  A highly spreading new variant is running amok, at the same time as new vaccines come on stream ð so what can we expect in the New Year?  After increasing the complexity of the model, this is my latest forecast[i].

We all know that Lockdown 2 gave a two week respite at the end of November, but now the new infection numbers are far higher than ever before (see graph1).  Terrible, yes – but note, France and Italy have recently experienced numbers like these, which have since slipped back from terrible to merely(?) bad.  This is uncharted territory for the Government, and for us all. We must expect further restrictions (more below).

Corona down but still counting

Overdone – Or not over yet?  Opinions differ and many are talking liberties with the law.  Let us consider the numbers.  This is the blog that can look at the long term and have a guess at the final figures.

Infections have exploded across UK and rest of Europe for the last three months.  They are now falling, but are still high.  It is worth bearing in mind that when Lockdown 1 ended, UK infections were ~3000 daily, not around 15,000 now, as Lockdown 2 draws to an end.

However, vaccinations are on their way, and so normal days will return after.  But how soon after?  We are told to expect vaccinations to start in December, but the massive numbers not till mid January.  Nevertheless there are 10.4 million over 65s and all these could be vaccinated before Easter, reducing infections by 35% and deaths by 89%.  The post Lockdown 2 improvement and benefits of the initial vaccinations will be will be offset by the Covid surge following the six day Christmas mixing.  Yes, expect a spike in Jan/Feb.