Overdone – Or not over yet? Opinions differ and many are talking liberties with the law. Let us consider the numbers. This is the blog that can look at the long term and have a guess at the final figures.
Infections have exploded across UK and rest of Europe for the last three months. They are now falling, but are still high. It is worth bearing in mind that when Lockdown 1 ended, UK infections were ~3000 daily, not around 15,000 now, as Lockdown 2 draws to an end.
However, vaccinations are on their way, and so normal days will return after. But how soon after? We are told to expect vaccinations to start in December, but the massive numbers not till mid January. Nevertheless there are 10.4 million over 65s and all these could be vaccinated before Easter, reducing infections by 35% and deaths by 89%. The post Lockdown 2 improvement and benefits of the initial vaccinations will be will be offset by the Covid surge following the six day Christmas mixing. Yes, expect a spike in Jan/Feb.
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