Archive for March, 2020

How Long?

Posted: 28 March 2020 in Covid-19
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C19 daily.jpgHow Long: what?  A piece of string? A wave? A plague?  We are getting the first hints from the numbers.  Yes, Italy looks as if it is “topping out” on new daily recorded infections (see graph).  For the last nine days they’ve been getting between 5300 and 6500 new cases a day.  Terrible.  But it’s not still going up and up and up.  Alas, Germany and Spain’s numbers are still escalating.  Nevertheless we have one major European nation plateauing.


New fever. No, not C19

Posted: 22 March 2020 in Covid-19
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This week

Panic fever.  Shopping has become quite nasty.  Hats off to my local Morrisons supermarket.  Yesterday, I thanked staff as I passed by.  Some were quite chuffed to be classed as Key Workers.  And they liked to be given a bit of respect.  They said they were working flat-out.    The floor supervisor was trying to vet over-buyers.  But queues were long, and I recognised few of the shoppers.  Some people are driving from supermarket to supermarket buying 3 here then 3 there,  gaming the system. (more…)

The week’s C-19 numbers

Posted: 17 March 2020 in Covid-19
C19 cum.jpg

Cumulative infections @16 March

Yesterday we saw a tremendous change in Government strategy.  They have switched from slow-it (“mitigation”), to a squash-it (“suppression”).  This is based on Imperial College research (here).  Worth a look, it is not too nerdy.

I have been graphing the numbers.  The Government’s Chief Scientific Officer said we were roughly 3 weeks behind Italy.  It is just over two weeks.  As of 16th March, UK had 1534 recorded infections. Looking at the numbers, it is not unreasonable to expect another 3,000 infections from 17th to 23rd March.  The Imperial College report commented on infection rate doubling every 5 days. (more…)

What’s coming our way?  There’s plenty of good advice out there, but what about the C19 daily 200313.jpgnumbers?  I thought I’d do some very simple modelling.  The graph shows daily reported infection rates for UK but also France, Spain and Italy.  To 13th March.  These countries are socially similar to us and are similar(ish) in size.  So comparisons are valid.  First impressions are what we already know, Italy is way ahead of us, Germany, France and Spain have been slower off the mark, and UK the numbers, though growing, is still well behind. (more…)