Passing Peak

Posted: 23 April 2020 in Covid-19
Tags: ,

C19 daily.jpgPast the peak?  Yes we have.  I said in an earlier posting, on 6th April, that we’d peak and then plateau for 2-3 weeks and so we have.  The worst day was 10th April (8681 new infections), and UK was on a rough plateau of over 5000 new hospital infections 5th to 19th April.  It will be a case of swift ascent but slower decent.

As of yesterday (22nd April) UK had 133,495 Covid-19 hospitalised new infections.  Roughly 42,000 as it started throughout the UK.  Then another 78,000 at the plateau.  Based on current trends we can expect another 90,000 new infections before this wave peters out.  Making a total of say 210<220,000 hospital recorded infections (see graph above).

Sir Chris Whitty, the Government Chief Adviser said yesterday that though he thought we had hit the peak in terms of numbers of daily confirmed Covid-19 deaths in UK, he added that the public should not expect the numbers to fall away suddenly now.  The UK top was on Good Friday 10th April.  It took the UK 28 days and 6148 deaths to reach that point.  There were an additional 11937 in the following days to yesterday.  I forecast another 15000 hospital based Covid-19 caused deaths, in the coming month or two.  Very likely into June (see graph).C19 daily deaths.jpg

This makes for a grim total of 31<33,000 deaths.  That is a bit less than the number of British Commonwealth deaths in the WW2 North Africa campaign.  El Alamein, Tobruk, Tunis, Torch, and more – all rolled up into one event.

Could it all have been done differently.  Broadly perhaps no.  But in the details:

  • The Government should have done lockdown earlier (after all we all were seeing what was happening in Italy).
  • The Government failed to take part in four rounds of EU super-bulk purchases of PPE.
  • The Government over-offered and under-delivered on PPE
  • We do not need an intrusive Contact App. We can use the (underused ) army of volunteers to do contact tracing and direct isolation.
  • Open the primary schools
  • We would benefit from Government admitting they are struggling too, instead of hiding behind The Experts. Remember? Those people vigorously scorned back in 2016.

But there is good news here.  Though the Government is pretending it is far more in control than it actually is, the self-isolation is showing results.  The numbers are going down.

Bill

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