Hitting Bottom

Posted: 13 April 2020 in Covid-19
Tags: ,

C19 daily.jpgSo – have we “topped out” yet?  Not the right turn of phrase, is it.  Not a huge personal effort to reach the top of a mountain, with splendid views at the top and the personal satisfaction of achievement.  It is a slide into a sea of sickness.  Into a foggy claustrophobia of ambulance sirens, clatter of hospital trolleys, bleeping of medical instruments and lights.

So – have we hit the bottom yet?  Looking at the graph, it looks as if we have. In the last eight days new UK daily notified infections surpassed 5000 five times.  And could again in the coming week or two.  The red portion are UK actual numbers, and the blue it the forecast is a projection based on Italy’s numbers.  We face another week of big numbersThen hopefully, the new infection numbers drop.  Still high, but less.  The Government is right to consider lifting restrictions (things in Germany, Spain and Italy are improving).  However, the Government will be right not to lift restrictions here – yet.

Our curve is not like ♫The grand ol’ Duke of York♫.  It took 38 days for “10,000 men” to march down to the “bottom” (5th April).  Then 15 or so days in the sump of sickness (bumping along the bottom).  And then a slow old slog for “10,000 men” to march back to the sunny heights of health and safety and no new infections.  We might not get there till June.  That’s in two months.

Why quick spread of sickness and slow recovery?  This seems to be the experience in Italy, Spain and Germany.  And it makes sense – one or two big cities get it bad (e.g. Milan, Madrid), and then they recover.  Meanwhile, other cities elsewhere in the nation get the tsunami (Rome, Naples).  So the national chart show a quick rise in infections then a slow decline masking rises and declines in their other regions.  Perhaps, because of the preponderance of London, the rate of new sicknesses will decline faster (as they are doing in Austria, where Vienna is a similarly dominant city).  Let’s hope for a quicker recovery than poor old Italy.

As for the long term, how many infections will UK record in this wave?  Looking forward to July, we could be talking of 200,000.  A huge number, but still less than 0.3% of the UK population.  Do your best to ensure you are not one of them.

Keep safe. Keep sane. Keep The Faith
p.s. Is this fake news? All numbers come from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ .  A well know public website, using numbers from national government sources.

  1. rogerharper says:

    Do we have figures for the number of people officially recovered, the number of people having reported Covid-like symptoms to NHS Direct, the number of people recovered from these symptoms, and the number of hospital beds available for Cvid sufferers. Without all these fingures, we do not have the full picture. I know a good number of people who have had symptoms and have recovered. If I am not unusual this means that about 30% of our population is now probably immune. Doctors I know in Cardiff and Stevenage report quiet hospitals with spare capacity to ventilate patients. It seems that number of new infections is unlikely to rise much further and the capacity to deal with more serious infections is in place. Therefore it would be fine to relax the lock-down now, the NHS no longer needing protection. If all we hear is about deaths we have a skewed and too scary picture.

    • Bill says:

      I suspect you are unusual in this respect. Austria is “ahead” of us on the curve. On 6th, they published research which sought to assess how many Austrians at large had already had Covid-19. The research came up with 0.33% and the Prime Minister said it would probably be under 1%. I was surprised too. The Covid-19 monitor app in UK is generating self selecting results, and back in 26 March results showed 10% of users probably had Covid-19. The result was criticised as coming from a self selecting group. But does suggest that secret-immunes may be 10% or less of the population. We are no where near ready for herd-immunity. Furthermore, my projections on deaths suggest a lot more to come. We are on 12000 and there could be 15<18000 MORE to come.

      As for quiet hospital? Yes, even in London there are hospitals that not yet swamped, because [1] of all new ICU capacity installed and [2] so many of us who DID have consultations scheduled , have had them postponed.

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