End of the Beginning?

Posted: 6 April 2020 in Covid-19
Tags: ,

C19 daily fcst.jpgWhen will the restrictions be lifted?  When can we go out again?  These kind of questions assume the end is in sight.  Sure we are near to “topping out” in daily infections.  But as Churchill said, it is just the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.  We are approaching our Dunkirk moment, not our Normandy moment.

Consider, yesterday was our worst yet for new recorded infections, 5903.  Remember – when Italy hit 5900, we were getting 700.  We may max out in the next few days at 6000, then plateau out for 2-3 weeks then come down.  Italy looks as if it is declining and it took 17 days to do so.  Spain is 14 days at the top and it’s not clear that new daily infections are on the decline yet.  Austria is planning to lighten restrictions and the new numbers are lower, after 11 high days.

Bit like the ♫Grand ol’ Duke of York♫, it took UK 38 continuous days of new infections to trudge to the top of the hill, then 2-3 weeks up there before another 40 or so days trudging down the hill again, 100+ day.

So, can we go out soon? Mad question.  We are less than 40 day though this “100”, 47,000 of us have been recorded as Covid sick.  We will have a peak period where over 100,000 of us will get ill, mostly mildly unpleasant (and keep clear of granny).  Then a tail, where another 40,000 of us will get it.  Yes a total of nearly 200,000 in UK will get it.  Terrible?  Grim yes, but there’s 67 million who did not get it (this wave).  And it is new infections, not death figures we should be watching, as they are the lead indicator.

Do not expect the end soon.  Restrictions will be lifted – but with stiff restrictions only.: to help keep the economy going; to help cooped up families keep sane.  Perhaps to restart (closed stadia) sports for TV, and studios for new soaps and dramas.

Till then… Don’t harm your own mental health by thinking the clampdown is about to be lifted.    Think long term and pace yourself.

Keep safe. Keep sane. Keep The Faith
Bill

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